Awards season, Moira Rose’s favourite time of year, is that stretch in the calendar that runs from the Toronto International Film Festival in September right until the Oscar envelopes are opened in early March. For the documentary crowd, though, awards season is a 12-month grind. Oscar wagers are made by the end of January with films out of the gate at Sundance. Then a few contenders jump into the fray at TIFF and other festivals, but following the race year after year, one more or less knows the documentary field by September.
Moreover, Oscar odds hang over documentary land like a kind of cloud these days. It’s increasingly common for reports about docs winning acclaim and festival laurels to include the words “and it still doesn’t have distribution.”
This year, the narrative coming on the heels of the Oscar shortlist was that contenders No Other Land, Union, The Bibi Files, Hollywoodgate, and Eno lacked U.S. distribution. That’s one fifth of the list. Others like Porcelain War didn’t sell nearly as quickly as they should have. Last year, it took Canadian nominee To Kill a Tiger all the way until the home stretch to announce that Netflix had acquired it. With the Oscars mere days away, No Other Land still hasn’t sold. It’s self-releasing and doing extremely well with a campaign that mixes FOMO and a sense of duty to rally audiences behind a story about the situation in Palestine. That the biggest platform for cinema in the world can’t inspire a sale truly is cause for concern.
If the Oscars help draw audiences’ attention to movies, and people are turning out to see the nominees and contenders, but distributors and streamers aren’t biting, then they system is broken. These are the films that benefit most from awards attention. Cynics can say that the Oscars are just a case of Hollywood patting itself on the back, but the documentary branch is clearly doing the work. Year after year, the voters acknowledge some pretty great films from around the world. They often champion underdogs and long-shots, seemingly using the platform as it was intended.
So, this year of all years, the documentary race will be important to watch. On one hand, there’s No Other Land as the little movie that could. On the other, there are nominees like Sugarcane and Black Box Diaries that have deep-pocketed distributors in National Geographic and MTV Documentary Films/Paramount+, respectively. Those films are both strong, but are have a very different playing field in a competitive race. However, there’s a very good chance that word of mouth passion will catapult No Other Land to an Oscar win. And if all that attention still can’t entice a buyer, then we’re all screwed.
Here’s a look at who’s nominated in the Oscars’ documentary feature and short docs races, followed by our Oscar predictions and personal picks.
Black Box Diaries
Japanese Journalist Shiori Itô investigates her own sexual assault case in this remarkably in-depth—and deeply troubling—exposé. Black Box Diaries follows Itô as she trails the evidence that police can’t be bothered to explore. Her allegations concern high-profile journalist Noriyuki Yamaguchi, so the case poses a classic she said/he said conundrum. However, as Itô digs deeper and her story ignites Japan’s equivalent to the #MeToo movement, her self- also lets one witness how one woman processes her trauma and how the conventional legal system frequently re-traumatizes survivors while protecting predators. It’s an emotionally draining work, and admirable for its journalistic rigour. While it delivers quality journalism, though, it doesn’t quite match the cinematic scope of, say, Collective, which was a documentary about a case, rather than the long form query itself. That said, it’s quite compelling.
Black Box Diaries may be the dark horse of the Oscar documentary nominees. While it was well-received upon its Sundance premiere last year—where it went home empty-handed—the film picked up festival prizes here and there, including a good run on the Canadian circuit with wins at comparatively smaller festivals like Sudbury, Calgary, and Lunenburg, and big ones like CPH:DOX and Zurich internationally. The film scored five nominations at the Cinema Eye Honors, plus a mention for Itô in its non-competitive “Unforgettables” slate, and a few nominations from smaller critics’ groups here and there, capping off the most low-key run of the nominees. But it’s a respectable piece of work that really strikes a nerve with whomever sees it. Nominees are Itô alongside producers Eric Nyari and Hanna Aqvilin – PM
No Other Land
No Other Land is a compelling true story of friendship, death, love, frustration and anger in a territory that some call Palestine and others Israel, but all call home. Made by a quartet of Palestinian and Israeli activists, it is set in Masafer Yatta, a disputed series of hamlets not far from the Hebron Hills in the West Bank.
Basel Adra, one of the four filmmakers, is a Palestinian activist, at the centre of the local resistance to the removal of his people by Israeli soldiers, who use the area for military training. Yuval Abraham, another of the quartet of documentarians, is an Israeli journalist, who sympathizes with the Palestinians, speaks their language, and reports on what is happening there.
To the Israeli authorities, the matter is simple: the people in the hamlets could be hurt or killed by the training sessions and, in any case, they are in the way and should leave. To the Palestinians, the matter is simple: this is their home and the military should leave.
Over the past five years, Yuval and Basel have become friends. Through select footage, we see how their lives have evolved, even amid the hatred and despair; the two have grown to respect and genuinely enjoy each other. If there is hope in this difficult film, it’s in the friendship between the two. When a Palestinian and an Israeli can be comrades, and this film shows that it’s possible, then someday peace and human rights may return to the land.
No Other Land is a doc of genuine emotion. This is an exceptional film that makes us care about the two filmmaking friends and the fate of the people who inhabit the land.–MG
Porcelain War
People love to spot trends (or create them) while crafting narratives to fuel the chaotic awards season, so should Oscar soothsayers make much ado about the fact that the previous two winners, Navalny and 20 Days in Mariupol, dabbled in Russian politics? Like last year’s winner Mariupol, Porcelain War observes Ukrainian efforts to protect the homeland amid Russian’s ongoing illegal invasion. The similarities between the docs essentially end with their settings though. Actually, it’s quite remarkable to see the scope of directions with which filmmakers tell facets of the same story. Director Brendan Bellomo enlists artist Slava Leontyev to share directing credits in the telling of his own story as he captures the resistance efforts of everyday people like himself who fight at the front lines, while the artists create symbols of hope in the porcelain figurines they display throughout the countryside. Besides the hot topic, the collaborative angle adds to a conversation about the evolving nature of documentary.
Porcelain War may hold one of the better Oscar stats heading into the room, too. Five of the six previous winners were Sundance winners, so the film’s Grand Jury Prize win (for U.S. Documentary) inevitably speaks to its reach on the festival circuit and the likelihood that voters—in the documentary branch, at least—sought it out. The film arguably has been gaining momentum on the circuit, too. It won the Directors Guild of America Award and was the only one of the Oscar finalists to be nominated at the Producers Guild Awards and American Society of Cinematographer Awards, which indicates that it’s held in high esteem across several branches—something that’s key to winning the long game. It also has a boatload of festival prizes, generally at higher-end events, and won the audience award at the CinemaEye Honors in addition to three nominations. Porcelain War might not be dominating the conversation in the press, but I absolutely wouldn’t count it out. – PM
Soundtrack to a Coup d’État
The Belgian artist Johan Grimonprez’s extraordinary cinematic essay Soundtrack to a Coup d’etat concentrates on the fate of Patrice Lumumba, whose naïve revolutionary rhetoric condemned him to become one of the tragic figures of the Sixties. Lumumba posed a threat to the West with his profoundly anti-imperialist stance in the newly freed Democratic Republic of Congo at a time when the majority of Africa finally became free from colonial control. The Belgians, who had reluctantly agreed to the establishment of an African government in what had been their colony for a century, helped to engineer a coup d’etat against Lumumba and a civil war in which he was inevitably martyred.
Johan Grimonprez places this horrifying and cautionary tale of imperialism and the effects of global capitalism against the music of jazz, which occupied a contradictory role at that time in Africa. The United States, in an attempt to win hearts and minds in Africa and the “third world,” brought older popular jazz ambassadors Louis Armstrong, Duke Ellington and others to the newly liberated continent in order to show that, despite racism, joyous tuneful Black music prevailed in America and around the globe. Meanwhile, in the States—the belly of the beast—a brilliantly contrary movement of radical “post-bop” players led by Abbey Lincoln, Max Roach, Ornette Coleman and Eric Dolphy were creating music that harshly and poetically depicted the United States as the repressive force it was, both in North America and the world.
Grimonprez captures many of the highlights of the highly polarized year of 1960. We are shown Khruschev, the Soviet premier in New York denouncing US imperialism at the United Nations. We see Armstrong—that extraordinary beloved figure—being manipulated: flying the flag for America despite the racism of the South. We hear Abbey Lincoln, the phenomenal jazz vocalist along with her partner, the great drummer Max Roach, tearing a strip out of America, playing their hearts out with blistering pieces that tug at your heart while engaging your mind.
Soundtrack to a Coup d’etat is an extraordinary film, which takes archival and contemporary footage and turns it into an incisive, intensely political feature documentary. Not everyone will love it—but it deserves the highest of regards.–MG
Sugarcane
At one point early in the race, the Oscar felt like a done deal for Sugarcane. The film directed by Emily Kassie and Julian Brave Noisecat earned six Cinema Eye Honors nominations, five IDA Awards nominations, and eight Critics Choice Documentary Awards nominations, leading the field in each. Although I generally wouldn’t put much stock in the latter, honestly, given how little documentary coverage those critics generate and how early they vote. (Yes, I’m bitter that they wouldn’t let me in.) But then Sugarcane won…no IDA Awards, one CinemaEye (cinematography) where No Other Land came out on top, and two Critics Choice Awards (political doc and, somewhat inappropriately, true crime doc), losing the big prizes to Super/Man and Will and Harper. It has lots of additional laurels from the circuit including the directing prize at Sundance (a good stat) and a boatload of festival gongs and critics’ group honours, along with notable nominations from the Directors’ Guild and Gotham Awards to boost its industry recognition.
If Sugarcane seems like it is losing momentum, however, one could attribute that deflation simply to timing: of all the nominees, it was out theatrically months before the rest of the pack and streaming on Disney+ while several contenders were still seeking homes. So, it’s really just the nature of the release cycle that accounts for the lower volume. Especially for North American voters, this story of generational trauma in a British Columbia community is one of the best inquiries into the violent history of Canada’s residential school system ever put to film. Noisecat bravely makes his story front and centre as he probes the lateral violence that has affected his life and those of his family members fuels a deeply moving account of re-opening scars in order to heal them. The sensitivity of the direction must be noted by Oscar voters. Also, there’s one more trend to consider: Canadians have won one of the doc categories in the past three years with Ben Proudfoot, Daniel Roher, and Proudfoot again, so it would be nice to see Noisecat and Kassie continue the trend. (The film itself is technically American due to financing.) Nominees are Noisecat, Kassie, and producer Kellen Quinn. – PM
Will Win
Marc says: With two major wars going on in the world, in Ukraine and Gaza, it is clear to me that the subject of the 2025 Oscar doc feature winner has to be a toss-up between the films on those tragic conflicts. In the incredibly divisive era that we’re living in, with people taking extreme ideological stances on everything from the economy to race to ecology, it still seems inconceivable that the Oscar could go to anything, but the films set in the war zones, the Ukrainian Porcelain War or the Gaza-set No Other Land. After the recent Oscar wins for Navalny and 20 Days in Mariupol, two Russian/Ukraine films, doesn’t it make sense that No Other Land should garner the prize this year? There’s no real debate about quality: both Porcelain War and No Other Land are fine films. For me, Oscars often feel like coin tosses in the void. This year, and for seemingly rational considerations, I am going for No Other Land as the winner.
Pat says: I don’t feel as confident in my Oscar predictions this year as I have previously, but I’ll stake my wager on No Other Land with Sugarcane and Porcelain War as potential spoilers. The doc vote has generally favoured films with topic issues in recent years, so a story about forcible home evictions and war crimes in Palestine is about just as “of the moment” as a film can be. It’s also hit some reliable precursors by taking top honours at the IDA Awards, CinemaEye Honours, Spirit Awards, Gotham Awards, and European Film Awards, in addition to probably the healthiest festival run of the bunch. Beyond the topicality, it’s just a remarkable feat of filmmaking, as well as a hopeful one in the collaboration that extends across borders between Palestinian and Israeli filmmakers. Few films have been able to sustain such active year-long conversation as No Other Land has, which reminds me a lot of Parasite’s Best Picture win: do not discount word of mouth discussion among industry peers.
Should Win
Marc says: If we’re going to give an Oscar for the documentary that most advanced the artistry in the genre, there’s no choice. The winner will be the extraordinary Soundtrack to a Coup d’État. It’s an intellectually and emotionally—and musically—engaging essay that shows how the past truly influences the present. Grimonprez should be the winner but, hey, Chris Marker should have won for Sans Soleil, shouldn’t he?
Pat says: It’s an easy pick for No Other Land for me. This eye-opening film contextualises an ongoing genocide and offers a shared plea for peace. Isn’t this what documentary is all about?
Should Have Been There
Pat says: Sorry, Marc, but I would kick Soundtrack to a Coup d’État to the curb. Sure, if you throw some noodles at the wall, some of them are bound to stick. But you also don’t need to put an entire bag of spaghetti into the pot just to make one bowl. There’s just way too much movie in that one for me. In its place should be Mountain Queen: The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa, Lucy Walker’s extraordinary film that takes audiences to the top of the world with tight focus and taut storytelling. It’s the year’s best superhero movie. I’d also switch Black Box Diaries for the Oscar-shortlisted Daughters by Nathalie Rae and Angela Patton. Frankly, the omission of this deeply moving film was the shock of nomination day for me. I also wish voters found space for Brett Story and Stephen Maing’s shortlisted Union, although I suspect that No Other Land got the “passion vote” between films seeking distribution.
Marc says: Hey Pat, I should definitely watch my diet but sometimes it is satisfying to have a big bowl of pasta. It’s a marvel that Grimonprez’s challenging film even got an Oscar nom; guess more people than me could taste the hearty recipe that makes Soundtrack to a Coup d’État so worthwhile. That’s not to take anything away from Lucy Walker’s film, which deserved an Oscar nod, too.
My main choice for “should have been there” is Mati Diop’s Dahomey, a film that is challenging both in form and content. It’s about the return of gorgeous royal statues, stolen a century ago from the Kingdom of Dahomey, which are finally sent back from France to Benin, the contemporary home of that former regal land. Diop chose to make the film as a doc hybrid, with the statues speaking to the audience, reflecting on their identities and wondering about their new homes. Diop’s doc is about imperialism and colonialism, of course; it’s just as much about immigration and the fragmented reality of being African or Afro-European right now. May I say that Diop has made a film that is profound and beautiful and controversial in all the right ways? And leave it at that? Maybe her next film will get an Oscar—or at least a nomination.
The Short Docs
Death By Numbers: A Parkland school shooting survivor courageously takes the stand and defies the murderer with her strength. Nominees: Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard.
I Am Ready, Warden: This harrowing film chronicles the final hours of an execution from all angles to ask if another death really equals justice. Nominees: Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp.
Incident: Surveillance footage and body cameras piece together a police shooting of an innocent man from a Rashômon-esque array of evidence. Nominees: Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven.
Instruments of a Beating Heart: Students prepare to perform Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony while navigating COVID protocols and a return to “normal.” Nominees: Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari.
The Only Girl in the Orchestra: An affectionate profile of double bass player Orin O’Brien, who broke the gender barrier in the New York Philharmonic Orchestra. Nominees: Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington.
Will win
Marc says: The Only Girl in the Orchestra is the winner for me. Never bet against Hollywood voting for its own. This is a lovely film, celebrating the life of a fine musician, whose parents are, astonishingly, film royalty from the Golden Age of Silent Cinema. Orin O’Brien is not only a ground breaker, the first woman chosen to be a permanent member of the New York Philharmonic—by Leonard Bernstein no less—she is the daughter of stars George O’ Brien and Marguerite Churchill. In archival footage, we see Orin O’Brien’s stalwart father starring in John Ford’s The Iron Horse and F.W. Murnau’s Sunrise, two of the greatest films of the Twenties, and her beautiful mother opposite John Wayne in the early talkie The Big Trail. There’s star dust sprinkled on this depiction of her life as a dedicated double bassist, whose own artistic life has been quietly built around a love for the classics in music and an eschewing of anything egotistical. Now, at the end of a life built around art, it seems clear that the Academy voters will give a prize to her career as shown through a film made by her niece.
Pat says: I think this category is a really tough call—like most of the choices in what should be an unpredictable night! Part of me wants to say Incident because its compelling subject matter and impressive craftsmanship could appeal to the widest swath of voters as Morrison assembles a tricky feat with archival footage. I don’t know how much name recognition Morrison has across the Academy as a whole, but this feels like it could be his “Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton” moment where voters recognize a maverick with arthouse pedigree who totally delivers with an accessible work. But the Academy very rarely awards artistic/experimental docs, even if this archival coup is fairly mainstream by Morrison standards. Part of me wants to say The Only Girl in the Orchestra because, well, it’s the most conventional doc as a character study and it’s also the only upbeat film in a heavy slate. But a bigger part of me says the voters will opt for death penalty doc I Am Ready, Warden since it tackles a very tough subject in an accessible way. The short doc winners across the last decade or two have generally all been interview-heavy and/or character-driven vérité works with a topical issue, so Warden reflects the kind of film that usually comes out on top in this category. Plus, Mundhra should have won a few years ago for St. Louis Superman.
Should win
Marc says: Incident. Could you imagine a world in which Morrison and Grimonprez won Oscars? How about a reality without Trump? Mind you, Incident winning for best short doesn’t seem impossible. Though the film’s multiple screen, subjective soundtrack presentation is clearly avant-garde, there is a nitty-gritty reality to the tragic tale being depicted that is strong enough for people to ignore the technique and give an award for content. If so, then Incident could win. But I doubt it.
Pat says: Incident. My bias inevitably clouds my Oscar predictions but it’s pretty amazing that the documentary does with editing what the judicial process couldn’t be bothered to consider with the same evidence. All five of these nominees are genuinely worthy of the recognition though. I’m fine losing money on this one.
The Oscars air Sunday night at 7:00pm EST.
